NFL Week 9 2011: San Diego Chargers v Green Bay Packers

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Fri, 2011-11-04 20:36 -- TheFootballLines

The San Diego Chargers host the undefeated Green Bay Packers in NFL week 9 action. The Chargers are 3-0 at home while the Packers have been too strong for their opponents both on the road 4-0 and at home 3-0. Either the Chargers perfect home record will be broken or Green Bay will suffer their first loss of the season. What are the Latest NFL Lines for this game? The Packers are currently at -5.5 after opening at -6 and the over under line is down 1.5 points from the opening to the current o/u 50.5. The moneyline odds have seen the Chargers open at +239 (3.39) and come in a little to their current odds of +214 (3.14). The Packers opened at -270 (1.37) while their latest odds are offered at around -240 (1.42).

With a league best 32.9 points per game the Aaron Rodgers led Packers have been firing on offense. In fact the lowest score they have recorded in any game has been 24 points, which was against the Rams. By contrast the Chargers are ranked (23rd) in the league with an average of 23 points per game. On defense the Packers have allowed an average of 20.14 pts per game giving them a points differential of +12.71, meanwhile San Diego have conceded an average of 22.71 for a +.29 differential.

Each teams relevant home and away points differentials are closer with San Diego averaging 23.33 points per game and allowing 16.67 for +6.67. Green Bay has a +8.5 road point's differential with an average of 28.75 points on offense and 20.25 on defense.

In NFL betting markets so far this season the Chargers are 2-5 against the closing point spread, 3-4 in over under betting and -$183 in odds betting (based on $100 bets each week). The Green Bay Packers are 5-2 ATS, 4-3 o/u and show a +$195 profit in money line odds betting.

Yards per play (YPP) statistics and differentials can be a useful predictor of future performances. Looking at these two teams stats we see that the Chargers have an average of 5.8 YPP on offense and 5.4 YPP on defense for a differential of +.20. The Packers have 6.8 YPP (OFF), 6.2 YPP (DEF) for +.60. The formula for setting a crude point spread using yards per play involves finding the teams difference, in this case the Packers are .40 better and dividing this number by .15 (each .15 difference is equal to 1 point) which equals 2.67. Making the Packers 2.67 or lets say 3 point favorites before any other factors are considered.

The verdict - The Green Bay Packers have not put a foot wrong this season and deserve their current status as Super Bowl favorites.'s handicapping numbers (which by the way don't use the above YPP method) agree that the Packers should be favorites for this game but not as larger favorites as they currently are. We see value and have taken the Chargers on the money line at +222 (3.22). Movement from the opening +239 (3.39) has thus far seen the Chargers coming in with most of the Leading Sportsbooks prices having dropped. We also have plays on San Diego +6 on the point spread and under 51 in the totals market.