NFL Week 13 2011: Jacksonville Jaguars v San Diego Chargers

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Sun, 2011-12-04 10:15 -- TheFootballLines

NFL Week 13 wraps up with the Jacksonville Jaguars hosting the San Diego Chargers. The Jaguars opened the week as +1.5 home underdogs however that line has moved by a point and a half with the Latest NFL Point Spreads seeing them out to +3. In over under betting markets the line opened at o/u40 and has moved in a point to its current o/u 39, while in NFL Odds wagering Jacksonville are currently +150 (2.50) and San Diego are at -165 (1.61).

The 3-8 Jacksonville Jaguars have already had a big week with the sacking of their head coach Jack Del Rio coupled with news that Wayne Weaver agreed to sell the team to Shahid Khan an Illinois businessman for a reported $760 million. Mel Tucker the defensive coordinator will take over as interim head coach and steer the Jaguars over their last 5 games. Thus far this season the Jaguars have averaged only 12.55 point per game while conceding an average of 18.18 for a negative point’s differential of -5.63. Their home record stands at 2-3 with a home point’s differential of -4.6. In NFL wagering results the Jaguars are 4-6-1 against the closing point spread, 2-9 in over under betting and show a loss of -$192 against their average closing odds (for $100 bets each week).

Philip Rivers and the 4-7 San Diego Chargers certainly haven't lived up to expectations this season. Overall they are averaging 22.64 points per game and allowing 25 for a point’s differential of -2.36 while on the road they are 1-4 with a -5.8 points differential. Against the closing point spread the Chargers are 2-9, over under results are 5-6 and against the average closing NFL money line odds they are -$583.

Jacksonville's last 5 games have seen them go down to the Steelers (13-17), Texans (14-24) & (13-20) and Browns (10-14) and week 7 saw them have a win over the Ravens (12-7). San Diego have lost their last 6 games in a row, going down to the Jets (21-27), Chiefs (20-23), Packers (38-45), Raiders (17-24), Bears (20-31) and Broncos (13-16).

The verdict -'s numbers show play's on the Jaguars both against the spread and on the money line, however we are going to pass on this game. We make a number of NFL wagers each week (15 this week for example) and have an expected season return on investment of which this season is right on track. While the basis for our handicapping model is statistics based there are certain situations which can influence a team’s performance which are more subjective and difficult to quantify, such as key injuries, coaching and management changes etc. We prefer to leave these games out and will start looking ahead at NFL week 14 opportunities.