NFL Week 12 2011: Dallas Cowboys v Miami Dolphins

TheFootballLines's picture
Tue, 2011-11-22 05:15 -- TheFootballLines

The Dallas Cowboys host the Miami Dolphins in NFL week 12, for a Thanksgiving Day clash that will see the winner increase their winning streak to 4 games. The Latest NFL Lines for this game has the Cowboys as -7 point spread favorites which is in two points from the opening of -9. The over under line has held at o/u 44 since the opening while the money line odds pricing has seen the Cowboys move from their opening -280 (1.36) to their current price of -290 (1.34) and the Dolphins move out from opening at +248 (3.48) to the current +256 (3.56).

The Miami Dolphins started the season 0-7, with 3 of those losses being by 3 points or less. In Miami's first 5 games they averaged 15 points per game and conceded 25.6 and they went 0-5 SU and ATS. By comparison, in their last 5 games they are 3-2 straight up, 4-1 against the spread and have averaged 23.60 points per game on offense and allowed only 11.6. The Dolphins first 7 losses were against NE (24-38), HOU (13-23), CLE (16-17), SD (16-26), NYJ (6-24), DEN (15-18) & NYG (17-20). Their current 3 game winning streak started against KC (31-3) followed by WAS (20-9) and BUF (35-8). In overall betting results this season the Dolphins are 4-6 against the point spread, 1-9 in over under betting and are -$401 against the odds for $100 bets.

Dallas got away with the overtime win against Washington on Sunday (27-24 OT) and are on top of the NFC East with their 6-4 record (with 2-1 division record). The Cowboys have averaged 25 points per game and are allowing an average of 20.6 for a differential of +4.4. They are 4-5-1 against the closing point spread, 5-5 in over under betting and show a loss of -$176 against the money line odds. Dallas has been stronger at home with a 4-1 straight up record. Those 4 home wins were against WAS (18-16), STL (34-7), SEA (23-13) & BUF (44-7) while they went down to DET (30-34) in week 4.

In Yards Per Play stats the Cowboys are averaging 6.2 (4th) yards per play on offense and allowing 5.4 (10th) for a positive differential of +.80. The Dolphins have a negative differential of -.30 as their offense is averaging 5.1 (22nd) and their defense 5.4 (16th). Using the basic yards per play model to set a line for this game you would divide the difference between differential , in this case 1.1 by .15 which gives you 7.33 which is near enough to where the current line sits.

Our take on this game - Well's numbers show value on Miami against the spread. We didn't get in early enough for the +9 which we are not too concerned about. We did take Miami at +7 -109 (1.91) however if the line were to move any lower than that i.e.; +6.5 we would have been leaving it alone. At the time of writing the majority of sportsbooks still have the spread at +/-7 however the Dolphins price is lowering with -120 (1.83) to -115 (1.87) being the average. Sports Interaction currently have the highest odds for +7 at -105 (1.95). No plays on the money line or over under at this stage however as always we will be keeping an eye on line and price movements.

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