NFL Week 10 2011: Green Bay Packers v Minnesota Vikings

TheFootballLines's picture
Sun, 2011-11-13 03:15 -- TheFootballLines

NFL Week 10 and Monday night football sees the all conquering Green Bay Packers try to keep their perfect record in tact as they play host to the Minnesota Vikings. Green Bay opened as -13.5 favorites, with that number currently in half a point to -13 with most sportsbooks. The Latest Over Under Line is at o/u 49.5 which is down 1.5 points from the opening. In the money line odds market the packers are as would be expected short priced favorites at -650 (1.15) and the Vikings are +534 (6.34).

In fact if you do a bit of line shopping on the money line odds for this game you will find that there is not much difference in the Packers odds, with the range being from around -833 (1.12) to -650 (1.15). If however you were brave enough to be wagering on the Vikings causing the upset, then there is some variation in the current odds on offer. The Vikings range from +500 (6.00) out to +600 (7.00) at Sports Interaction.

The Packers are 8-0 straight up, 6-2 against the closing point spread, 5-3 in over under betting and if you had backed them each week for $100 you would up +$238. The Vikings by comparison are 2-6 straight up, 4-3-1 ATS, 4-4 in over under results and -$394 in 2011 NFL Odds Results. The two teams points differentials look like this, the Packers average a league best 34.38 points per game while conceding 22.38 for a DIFF of +12. The Vikings differential is -3.38 with their average 21.5 points per game on offense and allow 24.88 on defense.

Alternative NFL Betting Markets

Looking at one of the prop betting markets for this game, in particular the "First Team to Score" prop, we can use the NFL First Half Lines to price this bet quite reasonably. Using the current first half lines for this game being GB -7.5 and the over under at 25.5 we have a projected first half score for Green Bay of 16.5 and for Minnesota 9. By taking these projected scores we use the following calculation -100*(Green Bay projected score/ Minnesota projected score) equals -183 which will be Green Bays odds for scoring first so -183 (1.55). For the Vikings we flip this price which gives us +183 (2.83). A quick line shopping amongst the Leading Online Sportsbooks shows odds for the Packers to score first range from -345 (1.29) up to -227 (1.44) while for the Vikings +175 (2.75 up to +225 (3.25), so possibly a bit of value around on the Vikings. For the record, the Packers are 4-4 in first team to score betting thus far this season which may surprise some people.

The verdict - here at our numbers are in line with the current odds, spread and total so no play in this one. We will keep an eye out for any value in the various prop betting markets though.