NFL Week 9 Houston Texans v Buffalo Bills

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Fri, 2012-11-02 16:05 -- TheFootballLines

The Texans are at home to the Bills in NFL week 9 and as to be expected Houston are strong favorites. The Latest NFL Lines see a point spread of Houston -10 Buffalo +10 (with -/+10.5 also available) and a over under line of O/U47.5 which is down a point from the opener. In the money line odds department you can currently wager Houston between -526 ($1.19) up to -476 ($1.21) while if you fancy an upset you can get Buffalo priced between +375 ($4.75) up to +415 ($5.15).

One quick way of forming a NFL point spread line is to use yards per play statistics. Looking at this game we see that the Texans have averaged 5.4 ypp offense and 4.7 defense for a differential of +.70 while Buffalo are 5.7 yards per play on offense and 6.4 on defense (-.70). This gives a difference of 1.4, with every 0.15 equating to 1 point, so dividing 1.4 by .15 we get a baseline spread on a neutral field of 9.33. You can then make adjustments for home field advantage or any other relevant factors. In this instance if you were to give Houston a 3 point HFA you would end up with a point spread of 9.33 + 3 equals 12.33 which is pretty close to the opening line -/+ 12.

Both sides are fresh off the bye last week. Houston’s week 7 opponent was the Ravens while Buffalo took on the Titans. Both teams went into their respective week 7 clashes as home favorites with Houston at -255 ($1.39) and Buffalo -210 ($1.48) however only Houston lived up to the favoritism with an emphatic 30 point win over Baltimore (43-13), with Buffalo falling short by a point to the Titans (34-35).

Houston are 6-1 having averaged 30.86 points per game while conceding 18.29 for a handy points differential of +12.57. Wagering results for the Texans include a 5-2 (+$2.75) point spread record, 4-3 over under record and a +$122 profit against the moneyline odds. Buffalo on the other hand have a 3-4 overall record having averaged 24.43 points on offense while allowing 32.43 on defense (-8). They are 3-4 (-$115) against the spread, -$68 against the odds and 5-2 in over under betting.

NFL Betting History Houston Texans v Buffalo Bills Week 9, 2012
Date Spread Odds Home Score V Score Away Odds Spread Total
11/01/09 3 172 (2.72) Bills 10 V 31 Texans -190 (1.53) -3 42

The Verdict - Do our numbers here at show sufficient value to warrant a play? Sure do and we have taken a position in the point spread market. You can join along below or via one of our NFL Picks Packages here, or view our results.'s Pick: 
We have taken the Texans -10 at -105 ($1.952) against the spread. Would not like to go any higher than -10 .