NFL Week 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers v New Orleans Saints

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Sat, 2012-10-20 10:15 -- TheFootballLines
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers take on the New Orleans Saints in NFL Week 7. This game opened the week with Tampa Bay at +120 (+3) and New Orleans -140 (-3). Support for the Buccaneers has seen their odds shorten with the current NFL Odds market seeing Tampa Bay priced between +100 ($2.00) up to +105 ($2.05) with the Saints trading between -125 ($1.80) up to -114 ($1.88). The current point spread varies depending on the sportsbook with the line ranging between Buccaneers +1 Saints -1 up to +/-2.5. The over under total opened the week at O/U 49, it has moved out half a point to sit at O/U 49.5.

Wager counts from a Top Sportsbook show that currently around 60% of wagers placed in the moneyline market are on the Saints. Gamblers are also foreseeing plenty of points being scored and conceded with some 67% of totals bets on the Over.

The Buccaneers are 2-3 having defeated the Panthers (16-10) and Chiefs (38-10) while their losses have been against the Giants (34-41), Cowboys (10-16) and Redskins (22-24). Averaging 24 points per game while conceding 20.2 Tampa Bay have a points per game differential of +3.8. Josh Freeman has a 55.2% completion rate for 223.6 yards per game with 8 touchdowns and 8 sacks. Tampa Bay have been good against the spread bet thus far holding a 4-1 (+$280) record, while against the closing moneyline odds they are -$112 and in over under results they are 3-2.

Drew Brees and Co. is coming off the bye last week and will be looking to improve on their 1-4 record. The Saints have not had any problems scoring points, averaging 28.2 per game (8th) with their lowest total being 24 points against the Chiefs. The area for concern lies on defense where they have conceded an average of 30.8 points (30th) and given up an average of 456 yards per game. Wagering numbers for New Orleans sees them with a 2-3 (-$110) spread record, -$343 closing moneyline record and it is no surprise with those offensive and defensive figures they have seen 4 of their games go over the closing total and 1 game stay under.

NFL Betting History Tampa Bay Buccaneers v New Orleans Saints Week 7, 2012
Date Spread Odds Home Score V Score Away Odds Spread Total
09/16/07 6 218 (3.18) Buccaneers 31 V 14 Saints -238 (1.42) -6 41.5
12/02/07 -6 -260 (1.38) Saints 23 V 27 Buccaneers 240 (3.4) 6 41
09/07/08 -3 -185 (1.54) Saints 24 V 20 Buccaneers 175 (2.75) 3 43
11/30/08 -4 -187 (1.53) Buccaneers 23 V 20 Saints 177 (2.77) 4 44
11/22/09 11 420 (5.2) Buccaneers 7 V 38 Saints -500 (1.2) -11 51
12/27/09 -14 -770 (1.13) Saints 17 V 20 Buccaneers 640 (7.4) 14 48.5
10/17/10 6 205 (3.05) Buccaneers 6 V 31 Saints -230 (1.43) -6 43.5
01/02/11 -7 -280 (1.36) Saints 13 V 23 Buccaneers 248 (3.48) 7 46.5
10/16/11 6 228 (3.28) Buccaneers 26 V 20 Saints -257 (1.39) -6 49.5
11/06/11 -9 -440 (1.23) Saints 27 V 16 Buccaneers 377 (4.77) 9 50.5

Looking at the history between Tampa Bay and New Orleans we see a few interesting stats. For starters the last ten meetings have produced an over under record of 3-7 with the last 7 straight all staying under the closing line, the average game total for those ten games is 42.60 points. It is the Buccaneers who hold the overall advantage 6-5 while the home v road record and favorite v underdog results are 5-5. The team who has won outright has also covered the closing NFL point spread 9-1.

The Verdict - TheFootballLines.com's like the numbers on offer in the moneyline and point spread markets and we have made plays in both. You can get our picks below or visit our NFL Picks sections for more details.

TheFootballLines.com's Pick: 
We have taken the Buccaneers at +113 ($2.13) in the money line market and +2.5 $1.92 against the point spread. We think Tampa Bay should be slight favorites here. We would have taken them down to around -115 ($1.87) money line so we still see value.
NFL Week 7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers v New Orleans Saints | TheFootballLines.com

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