NFL Week 6 Atlanta Falcons v Oakland Raiders

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Sat, 2012-10-13 12:30 -- TheFootballLines

The undefeated Atlanta Falcons welcome the Oakland Raiders to the Georgia Dome for their Week 6 match up. Taking a look at the current wagering markets, the sportsbooks NFL Money Line Odds have Atlanta trading between -450 ($1.22) up to -400 ($1.25) while odds for an Oakland upset range between +325 ($4.25) up to +361 ($4.61). The point spread is currently at Falcons -9.5 Raiders +9.5 which is where it opened and in the over under total market the line is O/U 48.5 points.

The wager flow sees 69% of point spread bets currently being placed on Atlanta, 55% of moneyline wagers are also on the Falcons while 60% of wagers in the over under total market are on the over bet.

The Falcons are coming off a (24-17) road win against the Redskins where they started as -157 (-3) favorites. That win places them with the Texans as the only teams yet to suffer a loss. Atlanta have averaged 5.6 yards per play on offense while conceding an average of 5.7 yards on defense for a yards per play differential of -.10. In NFL wagering results through 5 weeks of the season the Falcons hold a 4-1 (+$280) record against the closing point spread, while against the opening money line odds they are showing a profit of +$370 and +$383 against the close. In over under results Atlanta are 2-3.

The Carson Palmer lead Raiders are 1-3 having had the bye last week. They sport a yards per play differential of -.70 having averaged 5.3 yards on offense and 6 yards on defense. Oakland are 1-3 (-$205) against the spread, -$155 against the closing moneyline odds and they are 2-2 in over under betting.

The last time Atlanta and Oakland played each other in a regular season game was back in 2008. On that occasion the Falcons got the better of the Raiders winning by 24 (24-0), they started as -136 ($1.74) favorites, covering the -3 spread with ease while the game total stayed well under the closing number of 41.

The Verdict - Our handicapping numbers here at don't show enough value to make a play in the moneyline odds or totals market. They do however show sufficient value for a wager in point spread market. Our pick for this game is available below. For details on our NFL Picks packages please visit NFL Picks or to view our current record visit results.'s Pick: 
We have wagered on the Atlanta Falcons -9 at -105 ($1.95). A bit of line shopping still sees -9 available however -9.5 is the average at the moment. -9.5 still shows value for a play, but if you can -9 at reasonable odds then that would be preferable.