NFL Week 4 2012, Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots

TheFootballLines's picture
Sat, 2012-09-29 12:20 -- TheFootballLines

The Buffalo Bills host the New England Patriots in an AFC East Week 4 showdown. The sportsbooks have installed the Patriots as road favorites, they opened the week at -205 ($1.49) on the moneyline with Buffalo opening at +189 ($2.89). Current odds see New England trading between -210 ($1.48) up to -190 ($1.53) while Buffalo are priced between +165 ($2.65) up to +175 ($2.75). Plenty of movement in the point spread market with the opening line of Buffalo +7 attracting enough action to halve the spread. The Latest NFL Lines see most sportsbooks offering a spread of Buffalo +3.5 New England -3.5. The over under total line is O/U50.5 which pretty much where it opened.

Stats from one of the leading offshore sportsbooks reveals that wager counts at the current odds and lines see 70% of point spread bets have been placed on the Patriots and they are also attracting more wagers on the moneyline with 62%. The over under total is seeing balanced action with wager numbers split 50/50 between the over and under.

Buffalo are 2-1 after three weeks having had wins against the Chiefs (35-17) and Browns (24-17) and a loss to the Jets (28-48). The Bills wagering results see them with a 2-1 +$90 record against the spread and they are +$32 against the closing money line odds (for $100 bets each week). The Bills have averaged 6.1 yards per play of offense and allowed an average of 5.4 on defense for a yards per play differential of +.70

New England finds themselves with a 1-2 record thru 3 weeks of the regular season and will no doubt be fired up to for this game. They have had losses against Arizona (18-20) and Baltimore (30-31) with their lone win coming against Tennessee (34-13). In NFL wagering results the Patriots are 2-1 +$90 against the spread, 1-2 -$155 against the money line odds and they have had 2 games stay under the closing total and one game go over. The Patriots have a negative yards per play differential of -.20 having averaged 5.3 yards on offense while conceding 5.5 on defense.

Betting history between Buffalo and New England sees the Patriots holding the advantage over the last ten regular season meetings. Straight up New England is 9-1, with the home v away record going 6-4 and the favorite v underdog 9-1. The team who has won outright has also covered the point spread 7-2-1 and the over under results are 6-4. The average game total is 44.4 points and their last meeting saw the Patriots win (49-21) as home favorites at odds of -568 ($1.18) and covering the spread of -10pts.

Here at our handicapping and wagering doesn’t kick off until next week once we have sufficient data, so we don't have any plays on this game. The possible return of Fred Jackson would be a big boost to the Bills chances of causing an upset here though!