NFL Week 14 2011: Tennessee Titans v New Orleans Saints

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Fri, 2011-12-09 00:10 -- TheFootballLines

The Tennessee Titans play host to the New Orleans Saints in NFL Week 14. The Latest NFL Lines sees the Titans as +3.5 home underdogs after opening the week at +4. The over under line is currently o/u 50 which is up two points from the opening of o/u 48. While in NFL Odds wagering the Titans who opened at +175 (2.75) have moved in, to currently be offered at around +166 (2.66) with most sportsbooks. The New Orleans Saints are currently -185 (1.54) after opening at -195 (1.51).

The Titans are coming off a (23-17) road win over the Buffalo Bills and need to keep winning games to keep their playoff hopes alive. They are 7-5 for the season with an average of 20.75 points per game on offense and 19.08 on defense for a differential of +1.67. At home this season Tennessee has a -.33 points differential with 4 wins and 2 losses. Those home wins have been against BAL (26-13), DEN (17-14), IND (27-10) and TB (23-17) while their two home losses were against HOU (7-41) and CIN (17-24).

Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints made it 4 wins in a row last week when they proved to strong for the Detroit Lions at home (31-17). The Saints are 9-3 straight up this season and have a +10.33 overall point’s differential due to them scoring an average of 32.8 (2nd in league) points per game and conceding 22.42. Road trips have seen the Saints go 3-3 with wins over JAC (23-10), CAR (30-27) and ATL (26-23) while they went down to GB (34-42), TB (20-26) and STL (21-31).

In NFL betting results this season the Titans are 6-5-1 against the closing point spread and 3-9 in over under betting with their last 6 games all going under. If you had wagered $100 on the titans each week against their average closing odds you would be sitting on a profit of +$218 to date. By comparison the Saints are 8-4 ATS, 6-6 in over under results and +$58 against the money line odds.

The Verdict -'s numbers agree that the Saints deserve to be favorites but not by as much as they are. We see value in the moneyline odds and have taken the Titans at +175 (2.75). We also like the under bet in this game and have bought a point and taken the under 51.