NFL Week 11 St. Louis Rams v New York Jets

TheFootballLines's picture
Sat, 2012-11-17 14:55 -- TheFootballLines

The St. Louis Rams very nearly got the win last week and the odds suggest they have around a 65% chance getting the job done against the New York Jets this week. Current moneyline odds for the Rams around -190 ($1.53) while the Jets are out to +167 ($2.67). The NFL Point Spread is Rams -3.5 Jets +3.5 which is out a half point from the opener of -/+3 while in the over under market the current line is between O/U 38.5 and O/U 39 .

Given the lines of +/-3.5 and O/U38.5 the sportsbooks numbers are suggesting that St. Louis will score around 21 points while the Jets will manage around 17.5. This season St. Louis have averaged 17.89 points on offense while allowing an average of 23.33 on defense for a differential of -5.44. The Jets by comparison have averaged 19.44 while conceding 25.33 for -5.89.

Where is the money going? Well wager counts from a leading offshore sportsbook show that currently 68% of point spread wagers have been on the Rams while 52% of money line bets are on the Jets. Bettors are favoring the under which is attracting some 62% of over under wagers.

Recent results for both teams are not good, despite the praise the Rams received for their tie with the 49ers they still weren’t able to get the win, leading 17-7 coming into the 4th and with Alex Smith sidelined for the second half with concussion they allowed San Francisco 17 points in the last. The Rams are 0-3-1 over their last four games with losses to Miami (14-17), Green Bay (20-30) and New England (7-45) and the tie with San Francisco. The Jets are 1-3 over their last four with a win against the Colts (35-9) and losses against the Patriots (26-29), Dolphins (9-30) and Seahawks (7-28).

The Verdict - Here at our numbers agree that the Rams should be favorites, but do either teams odds offer sufficient value for a play? Our figures say yes and we have taken a moneyline position which you can access below or via one of our picks packages. Our results can be viewed by visiting NFL Pick Results.'s Pick: 
We have wagered the New York Jets on the moneyline at +167 ($2.67). We agree they should be underdogs but not by that much. We see value down to +154 ($2.54).