The 4-5 Detroit Lions play host to the 6-3 Green Bay Packers in NFL week 11. The current point spread is Detroit +3 Green Bay -3 which is where the line opened the week. In the NFL Odds market the Lions are trading between +135 ($2.35) up to +145 ($2.45) while Green Bay are priced between -165 ($1.61) up to -155 ($1.65). The over under total opened the week at O/U 51 and has moved out a point and a half to sit at O/U 52.5.
It is amazing the difference a week makes in the NFL, Detroit went into their week 10 clash with the Vikings as -171 ($1.58) road favorites with plenty of pubic support only to get thumped (34-24). Enter week 11 and the Lions host the Packers in a crucial clash, they need to bounce back quickly to overcome a Packers side who has won 9 of their last 10 regular season meetings between the two teams. While it is never easy to contain Aaron Rodgers and Co. the Packers do have a number of injuries with Clay Mathews, Charles Woodson, Greg Jennings and Andrew Quarless all ruled out.
Detroit have averaged 24 points per game while conceding 24.67 for a -.67 differential. Recent results include losses against MIN (24-34) and CHI (7-13) and wins against JAC (31-14) and SEA (28-24). Wagering on the Lions against the spread this season has resulted in a 4-5 (-$120) record, against the moneyline odds they are -$137 (for $100 bets each week) and they are 6-2-1 in over under wagering.
The Packers are coming off the bye, having defeated ARI (31-17), JAC (24-15), STL (30-20) and HOU (42-24) in their last four games. Betting results for the Packers include a 4-5 (-$120) point spread record, 6-3 over under record and they are showing a small profit of +$48 against the opening odds. Green Bay have a points differential of +5.78 care off scoring an average of 26.56 points per game while allowing an average of 20.78.
|11/22/07||3||160 (2.6)||Lions||26||37||Packers||-170 (1.59)||-3||46.5|
|12/30/07||-3||-177 (1.56)||Packers||34||13||Lions||167 (2.67)||3||39|
|09/14/08||3||138 (2.38)||Lions||25||48||Packers||-148 (1.68)||-3||46.5|
|12/28/08||-11||-540 (1.19)||Packers||31||21||Lions||490 (5.9)||11||41|
|10/18/09||-14||-1050 (1.1)||Packers||26||0||Lions||790 (8.9)||14||48.5|
|11/26/09||11||495 (5.95)||Lions||12||34||Packers||-625 (1.16)||-11||48|
|10/03/10||-15||-1111 (1.09)||Packers||28||26||Lions||816 (9.16)||15||46|
|12/12/10||7||281 (3.81)||Lions||7||3||Packers||-320 (1.31)||-7||45.5|
|11/24/11||5||171 (2.71)||Lions||15||27||Packers||-190 (1.53)||-5||55|
|01/01/12||6.5||231 (3.31)||Packers||45||41||Lions||-260 (1.38)||-6.5||41.5|
Recent history is not kind to the Lions with the Packers holding a 9-1 advantage over the last ten regular season meetings between the two teams. The home v away record is 6-4 and the favorite v underdog record is 8-2. Over under results are 6-4 with an average game total of 49.90 points.
The Verdict - Is their enough value to warrant a play here? Our handicapping numbers here at TheFootballLines.com indicate that there is and we have made a money line odds wager. Last week we bet against the Lions taking the Vikings straight up and against the spread, you can grab our play below and see if we are with or against them this week. Our results are available here NFL Pick Results and you are welcome to check out our NFL Picks Packages here.