The 4-5 Dallas Cowboys can still make a push for the playoffs, as surprising as that seems. Their remaining schedule is somewhat open with games against the Browns, Redskins, Eagles, Steelers and Saints all at home and Bengals and Redskins on the road. Of course they have to win! So first things first, the Cleveland Browns this weekend, where the Cowboys are currently trading between -400 ($1.25) up to -345 ($1.29) on the money line. If you fancy the Browns to get their 3rd win of the season their odds range between +290 ($3.90) up to +330 ($4.30). The Latest NFL Lines see the point spread at Dallas -7.5 Cleveland +7.5 although some sportsbooks are running -/+9 and 9.5 with adjusted odds while the over under line is currently O/U 43.5 down a half point from the opener.
Using the yards per play stats to formulate a line for this game we see that Dallas have averaged 5.8 yards per play on offense while conceding 5.5 yards on defense for a differential of +.30, while Cleveland are 5.1 offense and 5.4 defense for -.30. This gives Dallas a .60 advantage with every .15 difference equating to one point, so .60 divided by .15 equals 4. From there you can make adjustments for home field advantage, strength of schedule and any other relevant factors.
Wagering results for Dallas sees them with a 4-5 (-$120) point spread record, 4-5 in over under wagering and showing a -$130 loss against the opening moneyline odds. Cleveland are 4-4-1 (-$20) against the spread, 3-6 over under and -$453 against the odds.