NFL Week 11 Buffalo Bills v Miami Dolphins

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Wed, 2012-11-14 19:30 -- TheFootballLines
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The point spread opened at Buffalo Bills -1 Miami Dolphins +1 however they are moving with the Latest NFL Lines trading between -/+1 up to -/+3, the Bills -2.5 Dolphins +2.5 is the average with the other spreads having their odds adjusted. The money line odds are currently trading with Buffalo between -140 ($1.71) up to -127 ($1.79) and Miami are priced between +110 ($2.10) up to +120 ($2.20). In the over under totals market the line is at O/U 45 which is down a full point from the opener.

Looking at both teams differential's coming into this game we see that the Bills have averaged 23.44 points per game while allowing 31.67 for a differential of -8.23 compared with the Dolphins who have averaged 19.22 on offense and 20.67 on defense for -1.45. In yards per play stats Buffalo have averaged 5.8 yards per play on offense and 6.2 on defense for a yards per play differential of -.40 while Miami have a differential of -.20 by way of conceding 5.3 yards on defense and gaining an average of 5.1 on offense.

The Bills are 3-6 overall and carry a 1-2 home record. Their recent results include a loss to the Patriots last week (31-37), a loss to the Texans (9-21) and a loss to the Titans (34-35). In NFL Money Line Odds Results the Bills are showing a loss of -$266 against the opening odds and -$258 against the close. Against the closing point spread Buffalo have a 4-5 (-$120) record and they are 6-3 in over under results.

The Miami Dolphins will look to bounce back after their (3-37) home loss to the Titans last week, in particular Ryan Tannehill who threw 3 interceptions. Other recent results for Miami include a loss against the Colts (20-23) and wins over the Jets (30-9), Rams (17-14) and Bengals (17-13). The Dolphins are 2-3 on the road and 4-5 overall, they have a 4-5 (-$120) point spread record, 4-5 over under record and they are showing a loss of -$35 against the opening money line odds (for $100 bets each week).

NFL Betting History Buffalo Bills v Miami Dolphins Week 11, 2012
Date Spread Odds Home Score V Score Away Odds Spread Total
11/11/07 3 119 (2.19) Dolphins 10 V 13 Bills -129 (1.78) -3 41
12/09/07 -7 -280 (1.36) Bills 38 V 17 Dolphins 260 (3.6) 7 34
10/26/08 -1 -110 (1.91) Dolphins 25 V 16 Bills 100 (2) 1 41.5
12/07/08 -2 -120 (1.83) Bills 3 V 16 Dolphins 110 (2.1) 2 43
10/04/09 -2 -121 (1.83) Dolphins 38 V 10 Bills 111 (2.11) 2 37.5
11/29/09 4 172 (2.72) Bills 31 V 14 Dolphins -190 (1.53) -4 38
09/12/10 3 140 (2.4) Bills 10 V 15 Dolphins -155 (1.65) -3 37
12/19/10 -6 -235 (1.43) Dolphins 14 V 17 Bills 210 (3.1) 6 40
11/20/11 -3 -156 (1.64) Dolphins 35 V 8 Bills 141 (2.41) 3 44
12/18/11 1 -103 (1.97) Bills 23 V 30 Dolphins -107 (1.93) -1 42.5

Recent history between Buffalo and Miami sees Miami hold the advantage 6-4. Over the last ten regular seasons meeting between these two the home v away record is 5-5 and the favorite v underdog record is 7-3. The team who has won outright has also covered the closing spread 9-0-1 and the over under results are 4-6 with an average game total of 38.30 points. The last time they met Miami prevailed (30-23) as -107 (1.93) road favorites, covering the spread of -1 by 6 points.

Any value? - Here at TheFootballLines.com our handicapping numbers indicate that there is. We have taken a money line position and possibly will add a spread position. You can grab our pick below or via one of our NFL picks Packages. Our results are available here

TheFootballLines.com's Pick: 
We have taken the Miami Dolphins +120 ($2.20) on the money line. Our cut off point is +115 ($2.15). We are monitoring the point spread, if we can get Miami +3 at reasonable odds we will take it.