Can the Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Indianapolis Colts Thursday night? They have once this season, in week 3 (22-17) as +156 ($2.56) +3 road underdogs. What do the odds say? Well the current money line market is giving Jacksonville around a 40% chance with their odds ranging between +148 ($2.48) up to +160 ($2.60) while Indianapolis are priced between -180 ($1.56) up to -164 ($1.61). The NFL Point Spread opened the week at Jaguars +3.5 Colts -3.5, with current sportsbook lines in a half point trading at Jaguars +3 Colts -3. The over under total is trading between O/U 42 and O/U 42.5 depending on the sportsbook.
Jacksonville did prevail in their week 3 meeting with the Colts however that is the only taste of victory they have had this season. If this is the week that Jacksonville is too turn their season around it will have to be without Maurice Jones-Drew who is still sidelined. One of Jacksonville's biggest concerns is their lack of scoring, averaging a league worst 14.63 points per game. To date the league average is 22.87 points per game and while many handicapping techniques use some form of averaging to level out fluctuations in a teams scoring, doing so with the Jaguars when they are averaging only 14.63 points could be dangerous. If you averaged their 14.63 with the league average of 22.87 you would come up with 18.75 points, but through 9 weeks the Jaguars have only managed more than 18 points on two occasions.
Indianapolis is coming off a 3 point home win over the Dolphins (23-20) as +118 ($2.18) underdogs. That win takes the Colts to 5-3 and with their final 8 games including a road trip to New England and two games against Houston, this is an important game to win to keep their playoff dreams alive. NFL wagering results for Indianapolis sees them with a 5-3 (+$175) point spread record, 3-5 over under record and they are showing a +$360 profit against the opening money line odds and +$418 against the close (for $100 bets each week).
|10/22/07||3||148 (2.48)||Jaguars||7||29||Colts||-158 (1.63)||-3||45|
|12/02/07||-7||-281 (1.36)||Colts||28||25||Jaguars||261 (3.61)||7||45|
|09/21/08||-4||-201 (1.5)||Colts||21||23||Jaguars||183 (2.83)||4||41.5|
|12/18/08||5||216 (3.16)||Jaguars||24||31||Colts||-236 (1.42)||-5||43.5|
|09/13/09||-6||-270 (1.37)||Colts||14||12||Jaguars||238 (3.38)||6||45|
|12/17/09||3||163 (2.63)||Jaguars||31||35||Colts||-178 (1.56)||-3||43|
|10/03/10||7||254 (3.54)||Jaguars||31||28||Colts||-288 (1.35)||-7||45.5|
|12/19/10||-4||-218 (1.46)||Colts||34||24||Jaguars||195 (2.95)||4||48|
|11/13/11||3||132 (2.32)||Colts||3||17||Jaguars||-146 (1.68)||-3||37.5|
|01/01/12||-3||-166 (1.6)||Jaguars||13||19||Colts||150 (2.5)||3||36.5|
|09/23/12||-3||-173 (1.58)||Colts||17||22||Jaguars||156 (2.56)||3||41.5|
Recent history between Jacksonville and Indianapolis sees the Colts hold a 7-4 advantage over the last 11 regular season games. The home team has won just 4 times to the road teams 7 wins while the starting favorite has won 7-4. Over under results are 7-4 with an average game total of 44.36 points. The team who has won outright has also covered the spread 9-2.
The Verdict - Here at TheFootballLines.com our numbers don't show enough value to make a play. We agree the Colts should be favorites but if they do indeed win, by what margin? Of their 5 wins they have not managed to blow any team out of the water. The Colts winning margins have been 3, 3, 4, 6 and 3 points respectively!