NFL Super Bowl San Francisco 49ers v Baltimore Ravens

TheFootballLines's picture
Thu, 2013-01-31 05:30 -- TheFootballLines

The opening 2013 Super Bowl lines saw the point spread hit the offshore boards with the San Francisco 49ers -4 favorites and the Baltimore Ravens +4 underdogs. The latest NFL Super Bowl lines show a half point drop in the spread with it currently sitting at 49ers -3.5 Ravens +3.5. The over under total opened the week at O/U48 and has seen enough action on the under to drop the line by a full point with it currently offered at O/U 47. With the public expected to hit the over in coming days we may see the total swing back up closer to game day. In the moneyline market San Francisco are trading between -190 (1.53) up to -165 ($1.61) while Baltimore are priced from +145 ($2.45) up to +161 ($2.61).

Wager counts from a top offshore sportsbook show that the current -/+3.5 point spread has slightly more gamblers favoring the Ravens, they account for around 53% of the point spread wagers placed to date. With plenty of punters attracted to Baltimore's underdog moneyline odds we have seen them drop from the opening and would not be surprised to see their price shorten a little further over the weekend.

The 49ers have made their way to the Super Bowl by defeating the Packers (45-31) as -162 (-3.5pt) home favorites and the Falcons (28-24) as -186 (-3.5) road underdogs. Finding themselves 17-0 down in the early going against the Falcons Colin Kaepernick and Co. showed no signs of panic, working their way back into the contest and then on to victory to record one of the biggest comebacks in a Championship game. Through the regular season San Francisco went 11-4-1 averaging 24.81 points per game while allowing an average of 17.06 for a point per game differential of +7.75. Regular season wagering stats for the 49ers include NFL Point Spread Results of 9-7 (+$155), +$397 against the opening moneyline odds and +$336 against the close (for $100 bets each week) and they went 9-6-1 in over under totals betting.

Baltimore advance to the biggest night in US sports by causing two major upsets. First off they took care of Denver (38-35) as +342 ($4.42) road underdogs with a spread of +9.5, then they traveled to New England and got the job done (28-13) as +346 ($4.46) +8 road underdogs. Heading into the Super Bowl as underdogs might just sit fine with the Ravens! Over their 3 playoff games the Ravens have averaged 30 points per game on offense while conceding 19 points on defense. Through the regular season they averaged 24.88 on offense and 21.5 on defense for a differential of (+3.38). In betting results the Ravens finished the regular season with a 6-9-1 (-$330) point spread record, 9-7 over under record and they showed a loss of -$16 against the opening moneyline odds and -$25 against the close.

With the Super Bowl comes propositions bets and an array of props that is mind blowing, from the normal How many passing yards for J. Flacco? - Over 200 yards -110 or Under 200 yards -110 right the way to the extreme like "Harbaugh" times said during 1st & 2nd half on CBS broadcast, must be both syllables together? Over 20.5 at -180 or Under 20.5 at +140. Essentially every conceivable prop betting option is available for the Super Bowl. When betting propositions there are a few different approaches you can take, we discuss those and look at some of this years most popular Super Bowl props in our article Super Bowl 2013 Prop Bets.

NFL Betting History San Francisco 49ers v Baltimore Ravens Week Super Bowl, 2013
Date Spread Odds Home Score V Score Away Odds Spread Total
10/07/07 4 190 (2.9) 49ers 7 V 9 Ravens -210 (1.48) -4 35
11/24/11 -3.5 -175 (1.57) Ravens 16 V 6 49ers 159 (2.59) 3.5 40

History between the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens has seen the two most recent games played go the way of the Ravens. Both were low scoring affairs with the under bet easily covering. Since 1987 the two teams have met 7 times with the Ravens holding a 4-3 advantage. When it comes to Super Bowl victories it is the 49ers that have the richer history having collected rings in 1981, 1984, 1988, 1989 and 1994. The Ravens lone Super Bowl victory came in the 2000 season against the Giants (34-7).

The Verdict - Here at our numbers don't see enough value in the point spread for a play. We do however see some value on offer in the moneyline and we have taken the Ravens at +161 ($2.61), our cut off price here would be +155 ($2.55). Cheers to all, wishing you an exciting and profitable Super Bowl!