NFL Divisional Playoffs 2012: New England Patriots v Denver Broncos

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Wed, 2012-01-11 23:10 -- TheFootballLines

NFL Divisional Playoffs game two sees the New England Patriots hosting the Denver Broncos. The Latest NFL Lines have the Patriots as -13.5 point spread favorites with an over under line of O/U 50.5. Those numbers suggest that the oddsmakers are approximating a result of New England (32) Denver (18.5). The NFL Odds for this game currently have the Patriots at -750 (1.13) and the Broncos +604 (7.04).

The New England Patriots will be attempting to win their first postseason game since the 2007 AFC Championship game. Last year the Patriots went into their Divisional Playoff game against the Jets as -9 point spread home favorites, only to fall short going down (21-28). The Denver Broncos on the other hand will be trying to ride the momentum from last weeks win and of course the whole Tim Tebow hype.

The New England Patriots

The Patriots finished 1st in the AFC East with a 13-3 record including a 7-1 home record. Overall the Patriots have averaged 32.06 points per game and conceded 21.38 for a differential of (+10.68). Their home differential is slightly higher (+11.5), due to them averaging 30.75 points on offense and conceding 19.25 on defense. The Patriots only loss at home this season was against the Giants in week 9 when they went down (20-24). That was the last time the Patriots suffered a defeat as they went on to win their last eight games of the regular. New England's last 3 weeks of the regular season saw them defeat the Broncos (41-23), Dolphins (27-24) and Bills (49-21).

In NFL wagering results for the season the Patriots are 9-7 against the closing point spread, 11-5 in over under betting and +$139 against the opening money line odds and +$182 against the closing (for $100 bets each week).

The Denver Broncos

The Broncos finished with an 8-8 record and went 5-3 on the road. Overall the Broncos averaged 19.31 points per game while allowing 24.38 for a differential of (-5.07). By comparison their road averages are 21.88 on offense and 25 on defense for a road differential of (-3.12). On the road the Broncos have defeated MIA (18-15), OAK (38-24), KC (17-10), SD (16-13) and MIN (35-32) while their losses were against TEN (14-17), GB (23-49) and BUF (14-40). In wagering results the Broncos ended the regular season with a 7-9 point spread record, 9-7 in over under betting and +$471 against the opening money line odds and +$404 against the close.

Last weeks dramatic overtime win over the Steelers saw the Broncos cover the closing +7.5 point spread as well as cashing on their moneyline odds of +293 (3.93). The combined 52 points easily went over the closing over under line of 34 which takes their stats (including postseason) to 10-7 O/U, 8-9 ATS and +$697 against the moneyline odds.

The verdict - here at our point spread and moneyline numbers agree with the sportsbooks, so no action there. We do see value in the over under and have taken the under 50.5. Ideally we would have preferred to get under 51 which is where the line opened however we missed that opportunity.