NFL Divisional Playoffs 2012: San Francisco 49ers v New Orleans Saints

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Tue, 2012-01-10 05:15 -- TheFootballLines

First up in this weekends NFL Divisional Playoffs is the San Francisco 49ers hosting the New Orleans Saints at Candlestick Park. A look at the Latest NFL Lines with the leading online sportsbooks, sees the San Francisco 49ers as +3.5 point spread home underdogs. This line initially opened at +3 and has moved out a half point to the current +3.5. In the over under totals market the line is O/U 47.5 and in NFL Odds the 49ers are +171 (2.71) and the Saints -190 (1.53).

This game has the makings of a classic. On one side we have the New Orleans Saints, with the hottest offense in the league right now, having averaged 44.25 points per game in their last 4. On the other side trying to combat that offense, we have the stingy defense of the San Francisco 49ers who have allowed an average of only 14.31 points per game through the regular season. With the lines at +3.5 and O/U 47.5 the oddsmakers are approximating a result where the 49ers will score 22 points to the Saints 25.5.

The San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers finished 1st in the NFC West with a 13-3 record which included a home record of 7-1. At home the 49ers have averaged 27.63 points per game while conceding 10.88 for a differential of (+16.75). Their only loss at home this season was back in week 2 against DAL (24-27). In NFL wagering results the 49ers have been profitable for their backers with a 12-3-1 point spread record, 7-9 in over under results and a league best +$835 against the money line odds ($100 bets each week). San Francisco ended the season with wins against PIT (20-3), SEA (19-17) and STL (34-27).

The New Orleans Saints

1st in the NFC South, the Saints finished with a 13-3 record and a 5-3 road record. At home the Drew Brees led offense averaged 41.13 points per game however on the road this number falls to an average of 27.25, subtract 24.5 which is the average points conceded by the Saints on the road and you have a road point’s differential of (+2.75). The Saints 3 road losses were against GB (34-42), TB (20-26) and STL (21-31). In NFL betting results New Orleans were 12-4 against the point spread, 9-7 in over under betting and +$211 against the closing money line odds. Their last 3 regular season games produced convincing wins against MIN (42-20), ATL (45-16) and CAR (45-17). In their Wild Card Playoff win last week against the Lions (45-28) the Saints covered the spread and saw the total result in a win for the over.

The verdict - here at our numbers show value on the 49ers and we have taken them against the spread +3.5 and on the money line at +171 (2.71). We agree with the over under line, so there is no play on the total.