NFL Divisional Playoff Atlanta Falcons v Seattle Seahawks

TheFootballLines's picture
Wed, 2013-01-09 10:45 -- TheFootballLines

The Atlanta Falcons are favorites for their divisional playoff game against the Seattle Seahawks. The Latest NFL Lines see the over under total trading between O/U45.5 and O/U46 depending on the sportsbook. The point spread opened the week with Atlanta -1 Seattle +1 and is currently available anywhere between ATL -1 (-125) SEA +1 (+115) up to ATL -3 (+100) SEA +3 (-120). In the moneyline odds department the Falcons are priced between -140 ($1.71) up to -130 ($1.77) while the Seahawks are trading between +115 ($2.15) up to +120 ($2.20).

Matt Ryan's Falcons ended the regular season 13-3 having averaged 26.19 points per game on offense while allowing 18.69 on defense for a points differential of +7.5. At home the Falcons have a 7-1 record averaging 24.50 points per game while conceding an average of 17 for a differential of (+7.5). Taking a look at Atlanta's yards per play stats we see that they have a differential of -0.10 having allowed 5.9 yards per play on defense and gaining an average of 5.8 yards on offense. In wagering results the Falcons finished the regular season with a 9-6-1 (+$255) point spread record, 5-11 over under record and they showed a profit of +$562 against the opening moneyline odds and +$586 against the close.

Seattle is coming of a 24-14 Wild Card win over Washington as -145 ($1.69) -3 road favorites. That was Seattle's 6th consecutive win, having gone 8-1 over their last 9 games. With a regular season record of 11-5 Russell Wilson and Co. averaged 25.75 points per game and allowed 15.31 (+10.44 differential). Seattle sport a healthy yards per play differential of +0.70. On the road the Seahawks went 3-5 averaging 21.13 points while conceding 18.70 (+2.38). Regular season wagering results for Seattle include an 11-5 (+$545) point spread record, 8-8 over under record and a +$551 profit against the opening odds as per our NFL Odds Results.

The last three regular season encounters between the Falcons and Seahawks has seen the Falcons prevail 3-0. All three were high scoring games with the over bet cashing 3-0 and the average game total being 65 points, with totals of 85, 52 and 58.

The Verdict - Here at our handicapping numbers indicate a play on the Falcons, we have taken Atlanta -1.5 against the spread. The Falcons have been dominant at home this season and generally the Seahawks are a lot tougher to beat at home than on the road, they did get the win last week however if RGIII stayed healthy that probably would not have been the case. While there are a tone of interesting subjective angles to this game, such as can the Falcons contain Marshawn Lynch? is Matt Ryan's poor postseason record a thing of the past? etc etc. Compelling as the many subjective arguments for either side's favoritism is for us and our plays it is all about the numbers and our proven handicapping model.