NFL Conference Playoffs 2012: New England Patriots v Baltimore Ravens

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Wed, 2012-01-18 01:15 -- TheFootballLines

NFL Conference Playoff games kick off Sunday, with the AFC Championship game between the New England Patriots hosting the Baltimore Ravens at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots opened the week as -9 point spread favorites however the Latest NFL Lines see them in 2 points to -7. The over under total has remained at O/U 50 since the opening while in NFL Odds betting the Patriots are currently -309 (1.32) and the Ravens +272 (3.72).

The New England Patriots sent the Broncos and Tim Tebow packing last week in an impressive (45-10) win. Tom Brady made 26 completions from 34 attempts for a total of 363 yards and 6 touchdowns. New England covered the (-14) point spread, cashed on the moneyline at closing odds of around -674 (1.15) and saw the total go over for their 7th game in a row.

The Baltimore Ravens advance the AFC Championship game care of their (20-13) win over the Houston Texans last week. Joe Flacco made 14 completions from 27 attempts for 176 yards and 2 touchdowns. The Ravens got off to a quick start and led 17-3 after the first quarter however scoring dried up from there with the Texans holding them to a lone 3rd quarter field goal. The Ravens cashed on the closing moneyline odds at around -355 (1.28) while the Texans covered the point spread (+7.5) and the over under total stayed under.

The New England Patriots

With a 13-3 straight up record the Patriots finished 1st in the AFC East. Overall they averaged 32.06 (3rd) points per game and conceded an average of 21.38 points per game for a differential of (+10.68). At home the Patriots went 7-1 in the regular season with a points differential of (+11.50). Their only home loss came in week 9 when they went down to the Giants (20-24). In wagering results for the regular season the Patriots went 9-7 against the closing point spread, 11-5 in over under betting and showed a profit of +$139 against the opening moneyline odds and +$182 against the closing (for $100 bets each week).

The Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore secured 1st place in the AFC North with a 12-4 record. They were strong at home going 8-0 whereas on the road they could only manage a 4-4 record. Overall the Ravens averaged 23.63 ppg and conceded 16.63 for a differential of (+7), by comparison their road differential is (+1.5). The Ravens 4 losses on the road were to TEN (13-26), JAC (7-12), SEA (17-22) and SD (14-34) while their 4 wins were against STL (37-7), PIT (23-20), CLE (24-20) and CIN (24-16). In NFL wagering results for the regular season the Ravens went 8-7-1 against the closing point spread, 9-7 in over under betting and showed a profit of +$201 against the opening money line odds and +$182 against the close.

The verdict - The opening moneyline odds and point spread were close to our numbers here at and the small movements have only brought them closer to our numbers, so no plays there. We will also be leaving the over under alone in this one as well.