With the new NFL regular season upon us it might be an idea to take a look at wagering results from last season. Looking at futures odds we see that last years heavy weights the Seahawks, Broncos, Patriots and 49ers are all expected to feature again in post season action.
It is hard to argue (at this stage anyway), that those 4 sides should not be favored. That said, should we blindly start backing them on the moneyline? after all the Seahawks went 13-3, Broncos and Patriots 12-4 and 49ers 11-5, got be a good thing right ?.
First off we don't prescribe betting anything blindly, but there are a lot of weekend wagering warriors out there who don't have the time or inclination to backtest strategies or do their own handicapping. So how would you have gone backing these 4 teams for $100 on the moneyline last regular season ?
As the NFL 2013 Odds Betting Results table shows the Patriots on the closing moneyline showed a $219 profit, Seahawks on the closing number were +$154 while the 49ers were -$36 on the open and +$51 on the close and the Broncos -$116 and -$76.
Overall not so great. It is hard to find value on these star teams with their low moneyline odds. Breaking down into home and road performances and we see that the Patriots who went 8-0 would have profited $341 or 43% on the opening moneyline for $100 bets.
The Colts were the most profitable team against the moneyline showing a profit of $1,093 against the opening number and $909 against the close. With all bets it is finding value that matters and quite often those heavy favorites don't stack up, that is where we turn to the spread bet. Take a look at how well the Seahawks, Broncos, Patriots and 49ers did against the spread, very nicely indeed! Last seasons spread betting results